Analyst Optimistic Bitcoin Breakout Hinges on US Macroeconomic Factors – 10X Research

Analysts predict a rate cut from the Fed on Wednesday could propel Bitcoin above $70,000. 

Crypto experts count on several factors to trigger a critical price breakout for Bitcoin despite the historical trends indicating flat and negative returns in August and September.

The analysts attach the greatest catalyst to the potential shift as the US interest rate cuts alongside the lower inflation. 10X Research considers the upcoming election’s potential to trigger a Bitcoin breakout. 

The bullish outlook by 10X Research comes after the Bitcoin rebound, which seems destined above 70,000 since losing such grip in early June. At press time, the lead crypto by market value is up 3% to change hands at $69,430, CoinGecko data shows. 

The surge in Bitcoin price replicates across the industry, with other crypto assets realizing a significant leap into the greed zone. Ethereum gained 4.5% to test $3,375, trailing BNB Chain (BNB) at 5%. Solana (SOL) occupied the pole position with a 6% gain, further ahead of the 2% rise in Ripple (XRP).

Bullish Outlook for BTC 

The marketwide surge comes following the pro-crypto announcement by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. In his keynote speech at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, the GOP flag bearer pledges to designate BTC as a national strategic asset.

10X analysts note that Bitcoin still appears unable to overcome the gradual decline. The report adds that BTC appears trapped in a well-defined downtrend channel traced to early March. Nonetheless, the analysts spotlight that BTC often tests the upper trendline rather than the lower limit, indicative of rising upward pressure.

The 10X Research is optimistic that a breakout is imminent rather than a breakdown, with the decisive range now around $69,000. Such will potentially accelerate Bitcoin’s ascent.

10X Research report identifies the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for Wednesday July 31, as a determinant event. Also, the researchers consider that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), due for release on August 14, could emerge as a catalyst to stimulate the Bitcoin surge. 

The 10X Research analysts expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to signal rate cuts at the upcoming meeting in September. The researchers acknowledge that the US is witnessing a cooling labor market and declining inflation. Such coincides with the need to recover from the economic weakness following the prolonged spell of restrictive rates. 

10X Research report acknowledges that the Fed typically observes a 5-10 month period between the last rate hike and the initial cut. The 12-month pause contrasts this historical pattern, thereby emerging the longest. Consequently, the long-awaited rate cut indication on Wednesday could trigger a Bitcoin uptrend above $70,000. 

The report weighs in on the statements by political figures Donald Trump and Kennedy Jr. When addressing the Bitcoin Conference, the duo made bullish claims that the report considers to lack substance.

10X considers the proposal by Kennedy to acquire 4 million BTC to hold as a strategic reserve to portray an unrealistic objective. The analysts add that GOP’s Trump pledge to mine the remaining BTC within the US reveals a superficial understanding of Bitcoin.  

Political Statements Key Win for Crypto Industry

10X Research considers the support for crypto among politicians, though lacking substance, to be a positive sign and a key win for the crypto industry. The support realized from the political space is likely to encourage pension funds to acquire Bitcoin. The report states that Such could be a catalyst for the price surge.

Bitcoin’s growing dominance amid the persistent struggles by altcoins suggests the July 31 FOMC meeting is likely to emerge as crucial for Bitcoin breaking past the $70K mark.

The report notes that the substantial token unlocks in the next month, coupled with market developments, are notable events that could manifest influence in the crypto industry. In particular, Wormhole is scheduled to unlock $180 million, critical amid new crypto projects emerging in August.

Nonetheless, the report outlines several headwinds, particularly the low stablecoin minting witnessed since the Bitcoin halving in April. Also, the crypto space portrays a relatively weak structure.  Such would lead to a downtrend when token unlocks of $1 billion in estimated value hit the market in August and are likely to exert downward pressure.  

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